"2.1 Billion Box Office: Who Benefits?"

As one of the three major golden slots alongside the Spring Festival and summer vacation, the National Day slot is a must-fight territory for major film companies. In the 2024 National Day slot, a total of 10 new films were scheduled, in addition to Hollywood引进 films such as "Transformers: Origin" and "Wild Robot" released in the previous week. In terms of the quality and quantity of supply, it is not bad.

However, the final result is that the total box office for the slot was only about 2.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.09%; the number of viewers was 52.0642 million, a year-on-year decrease of 20.06%.

In addition, according to the incomplete statistics of the reporter, among the 10 new films scheduled for this National Day slot, the total number of production parties and co-production parties exceeded 100. After removing the repeated parent-subsidiary and parent-company relationships, the total number also reached about 95. If we add the distribution parties, co-distribution parties, midstream cinema chains, and downstream cinemas, then the number of companies participating in this National Day slot far exceeded 100.

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Moreover, the share of box office revenue for many films such as "Volunteer Army: The Battle for Survival", "The Road of Fire", and "Bureau 749" is less than 40%, leaving a very small profit space for production parties and co-production parties. Although downstream cinemas can get more than half of the box office revenue, for cinemas that rely on offline traffic, the more fatal issue is the significant decline in the number of viewers.

Nearly a hundred production parties face a harvest of less than 1 billion yuan.

Before the start of the National Day slot, there were several pieces of information that gave the industry a positive signal: First, many companies released major films from their reserve projects, such as "Volunteer Army: The Battle for Survival" and "Bureau 749"; second, films including "Panda Plan" actively reduced the minimum settlement price, actively giving benefits to the audience.

However, from the results, "Bureau 749" started high and ended low, with poor word of mouth. Except for the relatively niche "Only This Cyan", no major film was able to achieve a box office reversal and word-of-mouth fermentation, ultimately leading to an increase in the overall market. The "2024 National Day Slot Film Data Insight" (hereinafter referred to as "Insight") released by Maoyan Research Institute stated: "Many new films are not strong, and their performance is in line with expectations. The film market needs more blockbusters to mobilize enthusiasm."

The final box office data presented is not satisfactory. The "Insight" shows that the average daily box office for this year's National Day slot was 300 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12%; the box office decline from the second to the fourth day of the holiday was the highest in 6 years.

Under this background, the profits that production parties and co-production parties participating in the National Day slot can get are very limited. However, the number of production parties and co-production parties for this year's National Day slot films is very large. Among them, the total number of production parties and co-production parties for "出入平安" is the highest, reaching 61, followed by "Volunteer Army: The Battle for Survival" with 32, "The Road of Fire" with 20, "Crisis Flight" with 11, "Panda Plan" with 9, "Bureau 749" with 19, "Only This Cyan" with 15, "Hit Good Man" with 13, "Pipilu and Luxi's 309 Dark Room" with 9, and "New Big-Headed Son and Little-Headed Dad 6" is the least, with 5.

In contrast, the reporter found in the materials of last year's National Day slot films that the total number of production parties and co-production parties for "Ex-File 4" and "Volunteer Army: Brave Soldiers" were 34 and 33, respectively. The box office champion "As Solid as a Rock" and the fourth place "Moscow Action" both had 10, "It Seems Not So Passionate" had 13, "I Am Nezha 2: The Hero Returns" had 11, and the remaining 6 films were all below 10.In addition, during this year's Spring Festival holiday, which is hailed as the strongest Spring Festival lineup, the total number of production companies and co-producers for "Hot and Spicy" is 24, "Racing Life 2" has 18, "Article 20" has 18, and "Boonie Bears: The Time-Traveling Explorer" has 23.

"The number of production companies can reflect the market sentiment to a certain extent," said producer Kim Yan, "As a reference, Hollywood films generally have 1-2 production companies. The more there are, it usually indicates that there are fewer good projects in the market, the greater the risk of film investment, and the more film companies need to band together for warmth."

However, beyond the strong risk-avoiding sentiment in the market, the influx of more companies and a smaller market share will also dampen the enthusiasm for film investment to a certain extent. After deduplication of the production companies and investment producers of all films in this year's National Day lineup, an incomplete count shows that there are still as many as 95 companies participating in the investment. In addition, the box office share ratio for many films is 37%-39%, which also means that nearly a hundred companies can only share a total box office of about 800 million yuan.

For the main production companies and main controllers, after deducting the production costs, actor salaries, and publicity and distribution expenses, there is still a huge uncertainty about whether they can make a profit. It can be said that in the National Day lineup, which is hailed as one of the three golden periods of the year, the vast majority of companies in the upstream of the film industry find it difficult to profit.

However, it is interesting to note that the reporter saw many fresh faces from other industries in this year's National Day lineup. For example, in the list of co-producers for "Volunteer Army: The Battle for Survival," there are news media such as the New Media Center of Xinhua News Agency and China News. More interestingly, among the co-producers of "Hit Good Guy," Beijing Liyan Wanbang Catering Culture Co., Ltd. is listed. Tianyancha shows that the company was established in June 2022, with a business scope including catering services and food sales, and only obtained the "Radio and Television Program Production and Operation License" issued by the Beijing Municipal Radio and Television Bureau on June 20 this year.

Cinemas get more than half of the box office share, but it's hard to say it's a big hit.

So, for the downstream cinemas, can they benefit from getting more than half of the box office share?

"Insight" points out that the average ticket price for this year's National Day lineup has dropped to 40.3 yuan, and the occupancy rate is only 12.3%, which is only higher than the 2022 National Day lineup severely affected by the epidemic in the past six years.

At the same time, Top Data points out: the revenue per cinema for this year's National Day lineup is 24,400 yuan, only 40% of 2019, a year-on-year decrease of 15.0%; there are 695 cinemas with a box office of 500,000 yuan and above, accounting for only 5.6%, a decrease of 5.4 percentage points compared to the same period last year.

"In fact, what cinemas do is also a traffic business, that is, offline traffic," said a person from a cinema management company. "Only when the traffic increases can more tickets be sold, and only then can the sales of beverages, popcorn, and peripheral derivatives increase. If (the cinema) is in a shopping mall, it can drive the business of nearby beverage shops and snack shops."However, the results of this year's National Day holiday box office showed a year-on-year decrease of 20% in the number of viewers, with only about 52.09 million people, even though the total number of screenings decreased for the first time since last year's "May Day" holiday, the average number of viewers per screening still decreased by 10% year-on-year.

According to Top Data statistics, looking at specific theaters, half of the top ten theaters in terms of box office revenue during the National Day holiday are in first-tier cities. Looking at the theater chains, Wanda Cinemas still ranks first, but its box office revenue decreased by about 26% compared to the same period last year; in addition, among the other top ten theater chains, only China Film Group achieved box office growth, while the box office decline of the remaining theater chains ranged from 11% to 70%. If we look at the statistics from the perspective of film investment, all film investments have experienced a decrease in box office revenue.

However, it is not just the performance of this year's National Day holiday that is poor, but the film market has been sluggish in the past six months.

This year's summer box office in mainland China was 11.643 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 43.5%, falling to the seventh place in the history of the holiday period; the number of viewers was 285 million, a year-on-year decrease of 43.5%; the number of screenings was 37.817 million, a year-on-year increase of 9.3%. If we extend the time dimension to 2014, both the overall box office and the number of viewers have dropped to the level of ten years ago; behind the record high number of screenings is the occupancy rate dropping to the level during the epidemic period.

The box office revenue of this year's Mid-Autumn Festival was 389 million yuan, excluding a few Mid-Autumn Festivals that overlap with the National Day holiday, its box office performance is also at a low level among the Mid-Autumn Festivals in previous years.

"The market needs a strong medicine," said Wang Xiaohui, Chief Content Officer of iQIYI, on September 25 at the iQIYI Enjoyment Conference, when talking about the recent film market.

So what conditions does this "strong medicine" need to meet? Looking at the recent actions in the film industry, the choice to re-release classic commercial genre films and introduce major Hollywood commercial genre films is a highly watched move. In terms of re-releases, during the Mid-Autumn Festival, "The Wandering Earth 2" was re-released, and after the end of the National Day holiday, there will be a re-release of the "Harry Potter" series; the upcoming Hollywood films include "Joker 2" and "Venom 3".